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Re: RAP vs Value

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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 05:53 PM
For lesser-value limiteds like CF and JJ5x5, RAP seems to be a good and accurate indication of value. For high-value limiteds like domino and domini, RAP is quite far off. At what point would you say RAP starts becoming less accurate, or at what rate would you say RAP becomes less accurate as price increases?
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Coinman001 is not online. Coinman001
Joined: 10 Apr 2012
Total Posts: 56149
20 Mar 2013 05:53 PM
idk probs liek 20394k

Send me trades!!
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steelfish is not online. steelfish
Joined: 29 Aug 2009
Total Posts: 7607
20 Mar 2013 05:53 PM
RAP I'd say is more accurate for 15k and under items
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Arktika is not online. Arktika
Joined: 27 Nov 2012
Total Posts: 2586
20 Mar 2013 05:54 PM
value>>

unless you're trying to outsmart a trade hangout noob

then it's rap>>

~『+24,643 posts』~
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 05:55 PM
What is the cheapest limited (at least 20k) you can think of that has a very inaccurate RAP?
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iBL00XER is not online. iBL00XER
Joined: 26 Sep 2012
Total Posts: 1838
20 Mar 2013 05:56 PM
once u hit bsf

ıвł00xєя
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Linkmon99 is online. Linkmon99
Joined: 11 Feb 2009
Total Posts: 29662
20 Mar 2013 05:58 PM
Once things go over 10k rap the gap between rap and price starts to go really far
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 05:59 PM
BSF doesn't seem too bad. RAP vs lowest price has over 86% confidence.
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:00 PM
Firebrand, on the other hand, has less than 42% rap::low confidence.
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mrpinpointjr is not online. mrpinpointjr
Joined: 15 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 13184
20 Mar 2013 06:01 PM
K cool
*¥~When all else fails, Mrpin prevals!~¥*
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:03 PM
no, I'm doing something wrong. you can't have negative confidence, it should only go down to 0%
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:18 PM
JJ5x5 lowest ~ 11k
RAP ~ 9k
11k ~ 120% of 9288
100%/120% ~ 83% confidence

FB lowest ~ 50k
RAP ~ 32k
50k ~ 158% of 31606
100%/158% ~ 63% confidence

EST lowest ~ 1010 trillion
RAP ~ 255k
1010 trillion ~ 395 billion% of 255k
100%/395 billion% ~ 0% confidence
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downtown78 is not online. downtown78
Joined: 02 Aug 2010
Total Posts: 834
20 Mar 2013 06:19 PM
nop
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:19 PM
DDH has lowest ​> rap? what is this
someone buy that so my data isn't messed up.
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:20 PM
@Down Saying "nop" has no significant value or relevance to anything in this entire thread. Your entire post is stupid and useless.
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TailsPower12 is not online. TailsPower12
Joined: 24 Sep 2011
Total Posts: 1428
20 Mar 2013 06:21 PM
[ Content Deleted ]
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 06:24 PM
@Tails

"At what point would you say RAP starts becoming less accurate, or at what rate would you say RAP becomes less accurate as price increases?"
Your answer:
RAP

I see.
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 07:00 PM
So, what should I do to determine the value of a limited? I only want to have three variables: RAP, lowest price, and number of listed sellers.

I was thinking of something like:

value = (RAP/sellers + low)/(1/sellers + 1)
which can be simplified to:
value = (RAP+sellers*low)/(sellers+1)

which can be tested on limiteds with a value already widely determined:

STF = 450k
value = (207691+475000*11)/(11+1)
452724
accurate

messor = 125k
value = (88150+24*140000)/(24+1)
137k
moderately accurate

grind = 900k
value = (147250+9*1.7 million)/(9+1)
1.5m
moderately inaccurate

DH = 2.4m
value = (234365+6*4 million)/(6+1)
3.4m
sufficiently inaccurate

EST = 10m
value = (255236+3*1010 trillion)/(3+1)
757 trillion
absolutely wrong

It seems to lose its accuracy as the number of sellers decreases.
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 07:31 PM
Well, these are mathematica's results:

RAP has no statistically significant effect on Value
Value tends to be larger for larger Lowest
Sellers has no statistically significant effect on Value

So far, based on the regression analysis, the number of sellers seems to have no affect on the value.
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KING300000 is not online. KING300000
Joined: 15 Jun 2010
Total Posts: 10839
20 Mar 2013 07:32 PM
rap means nothing at times, since lpp's can trick RAP based traders

then again, that's a good thing
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Nicholasdepickolas is not online. Nicholasdepickolas
Joined: 28 Oct 2010
Total Posts: 18737
20 Mar 2013 07:33 PM
rainbow fed

it's been lpped 3 times today
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 07:48 PM
Value, RAP and the lowest price all have a positive slope. Number of sellers is just absolutely random, so I guess I won't be using that.
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TailsPower12 is not online. TailsPower12
Joined: 24 Sep 2011
Total Posts: 1428
20 Mar 2013 07:53 PM
[ Content Deleted ]
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 07:57 PM
@Tails Statistics is confusing. especially when your numbers are based on *emphasis* SUBJECTIVITY. *cringe*
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1waffle1 is not online. 1waffle1
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Total Posts: 16381
20 Mar 2013 08:31 PM
I have come to the conclusion that there is no way to predict the value of a limited mathematically.
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