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Re: An Analysis of the middle east

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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
21 Dec 2011 03:30 PM
This my analysis on the middle east in events over the last 60 years or so in geopolitical sense.

The Middle East is a chaotic zone. There is no getting past that. It is governed, occupied and lived in by too many religous, ethnic and political factions which naturally creates friction. Friction is only low when their is either a domestic overwhelming power to keep order or a former foreign power to keep order. Each case as happend.

The Chaos we know today stems all the way back to Postimperial actions by the two superpowers of the Cold War era the United States and the Soviet Union's actions in the region. Let us start with knowing the grounds.

Ever since the start of the Cold War and the fall of imperialism, the Middle East has been governed by three balances of power. A balance of power for those who don't know is a state of balance created by two opposing countries focused on the soul objective of out doing the other. The three balances in this case are the Arab-Israeli, Iran-Iraq and the Indo-Pakistani. The Indo-Pakistani is technically the oldest and the Iran-Iraq is the youngest however the latter has been the most contested and the most fought over in the last 60 years. To understand these balances you must know their origins.

ORIGINS

1) Arab-Israeli: The geography of this balance has always been a contested area. Being fought over by the Phoenicians, the Egyptians, Hittites, Jews, Muslims, Christian Europeans, Romans, Persians, Babylonians etc etc. The roots of this balance begins more than 2000 years ago with the settling of the area by Hebrew settlers led by Abraham out of Mesopotamia. Judaism in the region became displaced after the Egyptian and Hittite invasions which brought about Jewish slavery in Egypt. Judaism returned after Moses' exodus over the Red Sea and back into the area. They built significance around the city of Jerusalem. Christianity also came long after Roman conquering of the area, and the death of Jesus Christ occurred. The Christians also built significance around Jerusalem but moved northwestwards into Europe largely. Finally Islam came after the Invasions by the Caliphate who happend to build a grand mosque right beside the ruins of the temple of solomon. The area was largely controlled by Muslims until it was invaded by Turkmen twice out of the north, then becoming under the banner of the Ottoman Empire after the defeat of European invaders as part of the crusades. The Ottomans controlled the region until 1918 when under Wilsonian practice their empire was carved in that area by the British and the French.

The British began nationbuilding to pacify their political control in the area. First in the Arabian Peninsula by sufficing their original allies the present day Jordanians after their defeat at the hands of the Saudis (hence Saudi Arabia) and moving them to their territory of Transjordan. Hence Jordanians now and also came a resurgance of Islam which naturally spilled into British Palestine. In 1945 a wave of Jewish Europeans came into British Palestine thus we have dispute. Both parties claimed control over the area and both had roots to Jerusalem. The Anglo-American allies chose to recognize the Jews, having similiar values and hoping to build a support coalition to defend a pressured Turkey, thus forming the State of Israel in 1948. Enraging the Muslim Palestinians and the surrounding Muslim nations. Thus we have the balance.

The Balance's maintaining: It has been maintained particularly moderately compared to the others. Despite President Truman's initial insertation on the side of Israel, the Soviets were the first real players in the area. The Soviets backed the Israelis in order to try and build a surrounding bloc around Turkey to pressure it into surrendering the Straits so they can move their ships out of the Black Sea and into the Med. When this failed because of the Truman Doctrine, Soviet backinf failed and enter the United States. Other examples have been moderate insertations throughout the Arab-Israeli Wars.

2) Iran-Iraq: The youngest of the three. This one has not as far back roots but it is the more complicated. It begins with Soviet paranoia towards Iran. Iran had been traditionally aligned with the Americans with the Shah in power. This meant the Soviets had the Turks and the Iranians all harped on one small buffer zone the Caucasus. That was a problem for them. Their solution was too box Iran in.

They did this by aiding in the installation of Communist or at least pro-Soviet regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. In other words the 1958 coup and the Saur
Revolution. It acheived their goal keeping Iran locked in however the internal disorder that happend was not good. The Iraq government was overthrown again in 1963 in a coup that was had a young Saddam Hussein as an officer. This led to the installation of the Ba'athist Party. This was fine as it now achieved two objectives. It still kept Iran in lock, and now locked Turkey since they have a belligerent to their South now. However in 1979, things got awry for the Soviets. First, the Iranian Revolution occured which left a unaligned smoking gun Iran which despite the Iranian Hostage Crisis, wasn't with either side and also an overthrowing of the communist government in Afghanistan. The Soviets needed to move fast since a potential enemy Iran was had a free arm.

Their move was the waging of the Soviet War in Afghanistan. The US naturally aided the rebels exploiting the situation. The Soviet mission failed on all accounts and 10 years later do to economic struggles were forced to remove themselves. The United States with the Soviets defeated bugged out. The two however had caused an earthquake in the region. This new Chaos kept the freed Iran contained to the east and now focused on their enemy Sunni Iraq to the west. Thus the balance was unintentionally born. The maintaining of the balance can be seen with the Iran-Iraq War.

3) Indo-Pakistani: This balance is arguably the oldest, may not have the longest roots but came in action before the others even while the two were occupied. It is also the easiest to explain.

After the fall of the British Raj in the area naturally tensions rose between the Muslim north and the Hindu south. So much that the Muslim north broke away from the Hindu South and left the regions of Kashmir and Kargil under heavy contest. There plain and simple.

MOVING FORWARD

The Iran-Iraq balance being unintentional and created by outsiders really was not over history. Afghanistan would also be an issue. Lets start with Iraq. Dictator Saddam Hussein had eyes beyond Iran, which was detrimental to the balance there. He set his eyes on Kuwait to his south which had oil which could be used to one up Iran. So he invaded in 1990. President Bush could not allow this to happen it would supercede the balance and uproot the area. Thus an Anglo-American led coalition was organized and defeated the Iraqi invaders and saved the balance in the Gulf War.

As for Afghanistan, the Soviets and the Americans left the place in Civil War. Naturally other powers attempted to profit from the conflict. Pakistan, the newly awakened Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan. All three would fail but their moves would mean something. One it would mean the reaffirmation of the fall of the Soviet Union with Uzbekistan being a former Soviet state. Second Saudi Arabia would become a regional power thus stabilizing the Arabian Peninsula and brining trade to the Horn of Africa, controlling that area. As for Pakistan this would be important. A borderland between Pakistan and Afghanistan would imerge. To add in the region would be left with Anti-westernism which will come into play.

The Anti-westernism birthed Al Qaeda which brought about the attack on the US embassy in the Horn of Africa and the USS Cole sinking. These where at first ignored by the US as a serious threat as they were enjoyng Cold War victory. Then 2001, Al Qaeda would conduct terrorist attacks on New York City, Arlington and Shanksville brining about the deaths of 3000 Americans. In outrage the Americans organized an Anglo-American led coalition that invaded Afganistan where the group was housed. This invasion sent shockwaves through the region. One the defeated Taliban retreated through the Afghan-Pakistani borderlands into Northwest Pakistan where they found friends and sanctuary amongst popular militant groups who largely allied with the Taliban and the following Al Qaeda. The popularity of these groups even by those in the government would undermine Pakistan's government damaging the Indo-Pakistani balance and also being the reason why we found Osama bin Laden a few miles from a military base in a big house. Two a conflict with the Americans and the Russians would emerge. The Americans had one way at first to get into Afghanistan. That was Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The only way to do that was to get Russian okay for they stil had influence in Central Asia. President Bush obtained that through a brilliant diplomatic move in 2001. However over time American influence would encroach in the area which would bring dispute with the Russians and American dispellment in 2006.

This War on Terror would further play in the Iran-Iraq Balance. In 2002 the Iraqi Disarmament Crisis would break out. WMDS would threaten the existance of the balance. President Bush's response when it seemed definate they had them was in 2003 somewhat like his Dad, an Anglo-American led coaliton invasion of Iraq. This invasion would have HUGE impact on the region. First the balance would be completely destroyed with the overthrowing of Saddam Hussein and Iran having imbalanced power over Iraq only being stopped from cashing in by occupying Americans. Second it meant the fall of Saudi Arabia as a regional power. They had too much invested in the area and after the fall of the balance the Americans no longer really needed them. Thus came the complete destabilization of the Arabian Peninsula, thus the Horn of Africa, enter Somali Piracy, NATO blockade and Humanitarian Crisis. As well as Al Qaeda in Iraq and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. It also meant the freeing up of Turkey.

President Bush having realized he had done what he had feared and destroyed the balance decided to use American Troops to maintain it and contain Iran. When he thought Iraq could handle itself he decided to try and leave in 2007, when failed and insurgency went up he sent in the Troop Surge to remaintain balance. As for Turkey, freed Turkey began to try and prepare for conflict with Russia. They did this by trying to build a buffer zone in the Caucasus by building influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan. The Russians panicked having an enemy on their southern border and so close to their natural resource rich region of the Volga, waged the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 backing the rebelling South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They successfuly secured their independance acheiving a strategic victory. Bush responded by increasing technological flow to Georgia and pressing on building a missile system in Poland.

Exit Bush and enter President Obama in 2009. President Obama faced a chaotic Middle East and a resurgant Russia and Turkey. Two of three balances are destroyed and one damaged. The Iran-Iraq has been anhilated, the Arab-Israeli is now been superimposed by the Israelis with solid US backing and the Arabs having no benefactor, this has caused dissatisfaction with the arab governments causing unrest, the Indo-Pakistani balance is damaged from the War in Afghanistan. Obama's response was to try and ignore the bigger issue in the Persian Gulf region and move onto Afghanistan, where he pumped troops hoping to wipe out the borderlands. As for Europe, he attempted to appease Russia by backing down in Poland, but still keeping the tech trade with Georgia. The new troops while knocking out Taliban holds in southern Afghanistan did the opposite of what they were intended to do, the Taliban naturally fled into Pakistan, this only enhanced the borderlands and further damaged the Indo-Pakistani balance. He then decided to use drone strikes as to try and cut down on the effects from the interventions. He finally had to focus on the situation in the Persian Gulf region. The region faced severe unrest, the insurgency had upstepped in Yemen, and more and more dissatisfaction with government was growing. He decided to end combat operations in Iraq in 2010 and focus on holding trying to use the Bush solution of having Americans try to keep Iran at bay. This gained him political capitial and wiggle room. However by 2010 the region was at a boiling point of tension, especially with the arrival of Anwar Al-awlaki in Yemen, and the heightening of conflict in Somalia and with Israel-Palestinian relations sinking. The Obama bubble created by the combat operations end then burst in 2011 with the Tunisian revolution which gave way to the Arab Spring.

The Arab Spring was burst of chaos that Obama had pledged prevent in elections back in 2008 to prevent. Thus he had tried to move at once. He first decided to try and get his base aboard which was coloring it as a rise against tyranny almost. He gave huge political support to the Egyptian rebels who eventually overthrew Mubarak in the 2011 Egyptian Revolution, but after that he couldn't allow the mass Chaos to leave the Middle East in tenfold. It would be the death of him in 2012, so he rallied a United Nations supported intervention in Libya in an attempt to contain the chaos. He got France on board for it naturally had interests in North Africa as well which looked good. He left the Israelis to manage the crisis in the near east and he pulled another interesting move. President Obama made a move to try and rebuild the fallen Saudi Arabia. He did this by allowing them to invade Bahrain in order to shut down protests there. His thinking was a powerful Saud Arabia would end the chaos in the peninsula and could potentially in the Horn of Africa. However the damage had been done and the Obama political message had hurt the Saudis there. The chaos heightend more with the deaths of Osama Bin laden in May in Pakistan and of Al-Awlaki in Yemen. While he had contained it, he realized now that there was no means of stopping the chaos that had been raging since 2001. He moved from trying to defeat it into containing it. He couldn't stay there anymore and he knew Americans wanted their boys home. Thus he ended the Iraq War, but to keep Iran in check, the day before Panetta made his speech in Baghdad ending the war, he visited Turkey and signed a BMD system deal. The Obama strategy is this now. Obama plans to leave the Middle East in Chaos, a controlled chaos focused on blocking and containing Iran. Turkey and Israel the new western powers in the region will keep Iran at bay in the west, while the chaos in Afghanistan will keep Iran at bay to the east. The Indo-Pakistani balance given time to heal will reinforce that.
Here is my analysis.
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Ryplayer is not online. Ryplayer
Joined: 06 Jul 2007
Total Posts: 6484
21 Dec 2011 03:36 PM
omg


tl;dr but i'm sure it's brilliant.
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LostintheBitterness is not online. LostintheBitterness
Joined: 06 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 144
21 Dec 2011 03:45 PM
Very interesting read.


Also, tl;dr: Balance.
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LostintheBitterness is not online. LostintheBitterness
Joined: 06 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 144
21 Dec 2011 03:56 PM
One problem: It didn't just start 2000 years ago. Its longer. Jewish history goes back much farther.
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
21 Dec 2011 05:06 PM
"more than 2000 years"

More than 2000 years means 2000 is a base point, and goes beyond that just there to save writing space.
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
21 Dec 2011 05:06 PM
Thank you for the compliments.
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LostintheBitterness is not online. LostintheBitterness
Joined: 06 Dec 2011
Total Posts: 144
21 Dec 2011 05:07 PM
5000 yrs.
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
21 Dec 2011 05:11 PM
Which is more than 2000 years. As I said.
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silencer1223 is not online. silencer1223
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
Total Posts: 5027
22 Dec 2011 01:39 AM
3) Indo-Pakistani: This balance is arguably the oldest, may not have the longest roots but came in action before the others even while the two were occupied. It is also the easiest to explain.

After the fall of the British Raj in the area naturally tensions rose between the Muslim north and the Hindu south. So much that the Muslim north broke away from the Hindu South and left the regions of Kashmir and Kargil under heavy contest. There plain and simple.
_________________________________________________________________________
Pakistan is in South East Asia. There was a feud between Hindus and Muslims even before the British Raj.
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
23 Dec 2011 03:52 PM
I consider South East Asia to be Indochina and Pakistan having Muslim culture and being right next to Afghanistan, I think it is safe to say they are part of the middle east.

I didn't say there wasn't, I was asserting that British authority stifled to feud.
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Avogadro is not online. Avogadro
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Total Posts: 4011
23 Dec 2011 04:00 PM
QUIT YER BALANCES OF POWER

WE WANT ALLIES IN CHARGE
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
23 Dec 2011 04:03 PM
democratic peace theorist pink fog^^^^^^
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Avogadro is not online. Avogadro
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Total Posts: 4011
23 Dec 2011 04:06 PM
The Democratic Peace Theory is fact.
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FreeLibya is not online. FreeLibya
Joined: 17 Apr 2011
Total Posts: 798
23 Dec 2011 04:08 PM
tl;dr


ill see later if its anti arab or not

if it is


i will debunk ur zionist propaganda u american


if its not


wow nice text bro
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
23 Dec 2011 04:10 PM
With the exception of....

Quasi War
Kargil War
Six Day War
Spanish-American War
Turkish-Cyprus conflict
Continuation War
French-Thai War
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
23 Dec 2011 04:11 PM
@Libya

Not anti-arab. Infact no one got hated on at all.
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FreeLibya is not online. FreeLibya
Joined: 17 Apr 2011
Total Posts: 798
23 Dec 2011 04:19 PM
Not anti-arab. Infact no one got hated on at all.
__
oh nice
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Avogadro is not online. Avogadro
Joined: 14 Nov 2010
Total Posts: 4011
23 Dec 2011 04:22 PM
These are REALLY stupid examples.

Quasi War
___
>the directory and the consulate
>democracy

Kargil War
___
>pakistan
>democracy

Six Day War
___
>egypt
>syria
>jordan
>iraq
>saudi arabia
>algeria
>libya
>kuwait
>tunisia
>sudan
>palestine liberation organization
>democracy

Spanish-American War
___
>spanish empire
>democracy

Turkish-Cyprus conflict
___
>greek military junta
>democracy

Continuation War
___
>uhh
>is this a joke?
>ussr
>democracy

French-Thai War
___
>thailand
>democracy
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
23 Dec 2011 04:29 PM
Quasi War
___
>the directory and the consulate
>democracy

During the French Revolutionary wars they were more democratic Pre-Napoleon.

Kargil War
___
>pakistan
>democracy

>Leader was elected
>elected legislative branch

Six Day War
___
>egypt
>syria
>jordan
>iraq
>saudi arabia
>algeria
>libya
>kuwait
>tunisia
>sudan
>palestine liberation organization
>democracy

All leaders were elected or put in with popular support, PLO is the exception

Spanish-American War
___
>spanish empire
>democracy

Parliament controlled the Spanish actions more than the crown did.

Turkish-Cyprus conflict
___
>greek military junta
>democracy

Turkey is a democracy and Cyprus is to.

Continuation War
___
>uhh
>is this a joke?
>ussr
>democracy

tis a trolololololol

French-Thai War
___
>thailand
>democracy

Yet again leader was elected.
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FreeLibya is not online. FreeLibya
Joined: 17 Apr 2011
Total Posts: 798
24 Dec 2011 06:30 AM
aweet mary lou jericho!!



All leaders were elected or put in with popular support, PLO is the exception
__
ahahahah!! yeah rite, Assads, Gaddafis, Mubaraks, all democratically elected? where have you been jericho?


Parliament controlled the Spanish actions more than the crown did.
___
The role of the Cortes (parliament) during the Spanish Empire was mainly to rubberstamp the decisions of the ruling monarch. However, they had some power over economic and American affairs, especially taxes.



Turkey is a democracy and Cyprus is to.
___
(1960–1963; 1980–1983) Turkey was junta

(1922–1926; 1936–1941; 1967–1974) Greece was junta

Cyprus belonged to Greece


Yet again leader was elected.
__
the King was elected?? What??























noob i know after this you will yell "lol i was troling u al"

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Yobobo10 is not online. Yobobo10
Joined: 14 Oct 2009
Total Posts: 3711
24 Dec 2011 11:32 AM
I'll sum it up in one word.

"BOOM!"

(trololololllolol)
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Iqualit is not online. Iqualit
Joined: 07 Jul 2010
Total Posts: 756
24 Dec 2011 03:23 PM
^win
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