Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:22 PM |
I've been playing around with a calculation for values as of recently, which is quite fascinating, to say the least.
Now, to start off, I am completely aware that there is no way to change how values work, but I just thought this would be really cool to share with you guys.
Now, without further-a-do, I'll get started.
So for the past week and a half I've been monitoring high-demand items, as well as low demand items (Beware trashing my own items in a second.).
Now what I did was figure out the cash R$ value and the trade R$ value.
For valkyrie helm, which sell for about 25000 R$ on average at a value of 35000 R$ this would be: 35000 : 25000 = 1,4 So 1 R$ cash is equal to 1,4 R$ trade value.
For Classic Fedora, which sells for 35000 R$ average at a value of 45000 R$ this would be: 45000 : 35000 = 1,28 So 1 R$ cash is equal to 1,28 R$ trade value.
For Jj7x7 top hat, which sells for 43000 R$ on average, and has a trade value of 60000 R$ that'd be: 60000 : 43000 = 1,39 So 1 R$ cash equals 1,39 R$ trade value.
Okay, last one:
For Legit fedora, which sells for an average of 2900 R$ cash and has a value of 4000 R$ this would be: 4000 : 2900 = 1,38 So 1 R$ cash is equal to 1,38 R$ trade value.
This way you'd be able to calculate everything to their respectable value, considering the average (with an exception of classic fedora) lays around 1 R$ cash = 1,39 R$ trade value.
So for my items, being Chryso and Seans it'd be like this:
Chryso, selling on average for 50-75000 R$ cash it'd be 75000 x 1,39 = 104,250. This proofs the major flaw in values. Seans is even worse, which sells for about 40000 R$ on average, that is 40000 x 1,39 = 55600, while the trade value lays between 60 and 70000.
Why did I make this thread? Well, basically out of boredom, but I thought it would be really cool to share with you guys how the random numbers commonly agreed upon we use on a day to day basis are majorly flawed. Thank you for your time, hope this somehow entertained you.
Oh and for tl;dr, just keep this for whenever you're bored.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Papaluty
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| Joined: 13 May 2011 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:22 PM |
| so much potential but on a kids game...... |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:26 PM |
@Papa How'd you mean?
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Papaluty
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| Joined: 13 May 2011 |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:32 PM |
Okay, I suppose.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:38 PM |
Now if we can multiply the circumference of the sun by the amount of dark matter in our solar system, we get the solution that we should all just rap trade.
Send me higher rap trades. |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 03:46 PM |
@Blue RAP trading would be so cool, but flawed due to how messed up some of the items are (rap wise)
Also, lpp's would be an issue, with this you can simply filter it out.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 06:27 PM |
Bump for people that are interested.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:06 PM |
Relying purely on averaging sales with the already arbitrarily determined value is somewhat flawed. I can see where you're going, but mathematically and logically it's not the best approach.
Since I assume this is working towards Rbx.Rocks procdeurally generating accurate values, I'll go with my own method.
Determine your control values, items that are relatively stable with small values, and sells consistently. - Legit Fedora, etc. Valk helm doesn't fit this category truthfully as it's way to volatile. Take a dataset comprised of trades involving that item in isolation. Use a gradient descent to determine the linear equation with the lowest percentage error for the dataset of that particular item.
It's a little jumpy and I left a few places out, but you can see where I'm going with this.
If you don't know about gradient descent: Iterate over the points in the dataset, and use it to average out the slope and intercept of the linear equation. Use that determined equation to determine the error values for each point, and then average them. You'd have to do it on a certain amount of steps though, to make it quite quick.
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:10 PM |
This, for a matter of fact, is completely unrelated to rbx.rocks, however, this is just something I've been thinking about in my spare time.
I thought it'd have been funny to calculate values and figure out what items should truly go for. I appreciate your feedback, but this is not how rbx.rocks's database will work, as we'll have median values, community values, and staff values.
However, as for valk being unstable, I'd have to agree, but it still was one of the few high demand items I've been closely tracking for the past week and a half and thought it sold enough for me to consider adding it. JJ, however, didn't fit in the story, unfortunately.
Thank you for your feedback, I truly appreciate it.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:12 PM |
The issue with mine is getting a reliable data set of >completed< trades. Then you'd use the outlined algorithm, with static values for legit fedora, etc. to determine the values for the next highest set of items (5k-6k), and going from there to get the higher and higher values, building on each other.
It'd create a proportionally sound "value" system, but connecting it with overall sales is something I'll have to work on.
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:12 PM |
jj5x5*
https://www.roblox.com/Kreator-Phantom-Antichrist-item?id=389251191 |
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Confinium
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| Joined: 31 Oct 2013 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:13 PM |
| wouldn't the value of any hat be what a person is willing to give for it, and what has been given for it? |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:13 PM |
Sounds very cool.
For the completed trades you should talk to Dylan (Zlib). He can very literally track every completed trade done, as he has proven to be capable off in the past. However, I doubt he'd share this due to privacy reasons.
It has bothered me that values are extremely iffy, and a system alike could revolutionize trading as a whole.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:14 PM |
"wouldn't the value of any hat be what a person is willing to give for it, and what has been given for it?"
Well yes, of course. The point is how do we "automatically" determine that arbitrary value. There's a point at which someone determines what it's worth to give.
What we're trying to do is figure out how to calculate that with a small percentage of error.
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:14 PM |
mega tl;dr
when you overthink a kids trading game
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:15 PM |
Value is how much people offer on it you don't need to calculate it lol
https://www.roblox.com/Kreator-Phantom-Antichrist-item?id=389251191 |
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:15 PM |
yeah this is infamy lol I've already talked with dylan and web about something like this
It's what I was going to do when I was going to start on the new rbx.trade Now that I'm no longer partners with water, I was going to help baheeg code rbx.rocks, or my own site.
Rbx.Rocks is the better option, since a lot of the underlying backend is done. |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:16 PM |
why not both rap and value
i made 100k today so idm |
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Confinium
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| Joined: 31 Oct 2013 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:16 PM |
well, the person who decides the value would be the person holding the hat what he will take for it is ultimately what the value would be for example, theoretically riptide can be worth 100k if every single person who owns it refuses to give it up for less than that lol |
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:16 PM |
"when you overthink a kids trading game"
well if you think about it like this, it's a lot better: ROBLOX is my job, I make my money from ROBLOX. Spending time refining my "methods" will surely have a payoff.
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Ruubu
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| Joined: 18 Aug 2016 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:17 PM |
@Confinium
Well not truthfully, you can say you want a minimum value. It's only worth that if someone will give you that amount. Holding something claiming it's worth a certain amount doesn't do you any good unless you're offered that amount.
Value only matters on conversion, if you don't convert than you "value" is meaningless. Look at rares for example.
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Widths
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| Joined: 12 Aug 2014 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:19 PM |
You also have to take into account demand, which would be a number proportional to the item's stock (or rather the active/BC users), the value, and how often it sells in order to calculate an item's value
-iJava |
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Widths
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| Joined: 12 Aug 2014 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:20 PM |
And you also have to take outliars into account, you can't expect everyone to sell everything for a fair price, nor everyone to buy anything for a fair price. Some people are gonna buy items for super high, some people are gonna sell items for super low
So RAP isn't a very good display of sell value
-iJava |
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Ultimized
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| Joined: 21 Oct 2010 |
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| 21 Aug 2016 07:21 PM |
Like I've said many times, value is merely a number commonly agreed upon.
I agree with that value is what someone is willing to take for their item, but shouldn't there be a base value.
Anyways, I'll be off for the night.
No great mind has ever existed without a touch of madness. - Aristotle |
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