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Re: Ever wanted to increase your odds in a legitimate way?

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JoesephStratenburgh is not online. JoesephStratenburgh
Joined: 30 Sep 2014
Total Posts: 3057
15 Nov 2014 07:44 PM
Simply use a sect of Murphy's law;

You have a 1/4 chance of winning a game between you and your friends Zack, Martha, and Betsy.

It seems pretty bleak since you have a relatively low chance of winning. Now, take Murphy's law and slap probability right in the face:

There is now a 50/50 chance that either you will win or lose

instant probability bonus.... theoretically
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JoesephStratenburgh is not online. JoesephStratenburgh
Joined: 30 Sep 2014
Total Posts: 3057
15 Nov 2014 07:48 PM
Another instance:

You decide to go to the mall one day. Earlier you heard that some of your friends (Zack, Betsy, Martha, Sue, and Joey) may or may not go to the mall as well.

There is a 50/50 chance you will see all or none of them
there is a 50/50 chance you will see 1 out of the five, or see none of them
there is a 50/50 chance you will see 2 of the five, or see none of them
there is a 50/50 chance you will see 3 of the five, or see none of them
there is a 50/50 chance you will see 4 of the five, or see none of them
there is a 50/50 chance that on their way to the mall, they all had an accident and died, or that they didn't and everything tuned out fine
there is a 33/33/33 chance that one of them died in an accident, the rest made it to the mall, or that you don't see them at all

Murphy's law is so fun when you can make every single outcome a higher chance than it really is
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giftbox24 is not online. giftbox24
Joined: 27 Apr 2008
Total Posts: 20629
15 Nov 2014 07:49 PM
1. don't misinterpret murphy's law
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JoesephStratenburgh is not online. JoesephStratenburgh
Joined: 30 Sep 2014
Total Posts: 3057
15 Nov 2014 07:53 PM
I'm not misinterpreting murphy's law

Murphy's law states that "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong"

this means that everything has a higher probability of consequences that one would normally perceive when compared to other probabilities
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JoesephStratenburgh is not online. JoesephStratenburgh
Joined: 30 Sep 2014
Total Posts: 3057
15 Nov 2014 07:54 PM
when he says 'wrong', he isn't referring to negative consequences

he is referring to things not going exactly according to your plans
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giftbox24 is not online. giftbox24
Joined: 27 Apr 2008
Total Posts: 20629
15 Nov 2014 07:56 PM
"this means that everything has a higher probability of consequences that one would normally perceive when compared to other probabilities"

far too literal
If you leave room for something to go wrong, then it will
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JoesephStratenburgh is not online. JoesephStratenburgh
Joined: 30 Sep 2014
Total Posts: 3057
15 Nov 2014 07:59 PM
get out you butthurt straight-thinker

people want a higher probability, so I gave them one
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giftbox24 is not online. giftbox24
Joined: 27 Apr 2008
Total Posts: 20629
15 Nov 2014 08:01 PM
Indeed, it gives you a higher probability, but not because of murphy's law.
If you were to use murphy's law to increase chances then you would play a game that only you could win.
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